Nigeria could record approximately 31,400 additional heat-related deaths between September 2026 and February 2027 as an exceptionally strong El Niño event develops, according to research by the University of Chicago's Climate Impact Lab.

The projection places Nigeria among the countries facing the greatest potential heat-related mortality during the period. Indonesia is projected to record 19,300 additional deaths, followed by Sudan with 17,600.

Across the Sahel, the researchers estimate that heat could contribute to approximately 66,800 additional deaths, with Nigeria accounting for nearly half of the projected total. Niger and Chad are also expected to face significant risks, with estimated additional deaths of 10,000 and 8,000 respectively.

Globally, the Climate Impact Lab projects that extreme heat associated with the current El Niño event could contribute to as many as 451,000 additional deaths between June 2026 and February 2027.

The report also estimates that the number of extremely hot days could rise by 44 per cent compared with a typical year. The researchers have described the event as a “postcard from the future”, warning that temperatures experienced during unusually intense climate events today could become more common in the coming decades.

The figures are projections rather than confirmed fatalities. They estimate deaths above the expected baseline and are intended to help identify where early intervention could reduce the risks.

What Is El Niño?

El Niño is a naturally occurring climate phenomenon characterised by unusually warm surface waters in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean. It forms part of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), a climate cycle that influences temperature, rainfall and atmospheric circulation around the world.

The phenomenon typically occurs every two to seven years. Its effects vary by region, with some areas experiencing hotter conditions and drought, while others may face heavier rainfall.

Although El Niño can influence weather patterns far beyond the Pacific Ocean, it does not determine conditions in every country in the same way. Regional weather systems, ocean conditions and long-term global warming also influence the outcome.

Climate forecasts cited in recent reporting indicate that the current event could remain strong into early 2027, raising concerns about its potential effects on public health, agriculture, water resources and vulnerable communities.

Why Nigeria Should Pay Attention

The projected 31,400 additional deaths do not mean that this number of Nigerians has already died or that the deaths are inevitable. Rather, the estimate highlights the potential consequences of extreme heat and the importance of preparing for its effects.

Heat-related deaths can be difficult to identify and record because high temperatures may worsen existing conditions, including cardiovascular and kidney diseases, without heat being formally recorded as the immediate cause of death.

Older people, young children, pregnant women, people with chronic illnesses and those who work outdoors may face greater risks during periods of extreme heat.

Farmers, traders, construction workers, drivers and other outdoor workers may find it particularly difficult to avoid prolonged exposure when their livelihoods depend on working through hot conditions.

However, the national projection should not be interpreted as a prediction that every state will experience identical conditions. Nigeria's weather varies by region, and updated forecasts from the Nigerian Meteorological Agency (NiMet) remain important for understanding local risks.

How Nigerians Can Protect Themselves

While the precise effects of El Niño will vary by location, practical precautions can help reduce the risk of heat-related illness.

Stay hydrated. Drink water regularly throughout the day, particularly when working outdoors or engaging in physical activity in hot conditions.

Reduce exposure to intense heat. Where possible, avoid strenuous outdoor activities during the hottest hours of the day. Seek shade or a cooler indoor environment when temperatures become uncomfortable.

Wear suitable clothing. Choose lightweight, loose-fitting clothing and use a hat or other appropriate protection when outdoors.

Keep living spaces as cool as possible. Use shade, improve ventilation when outdoor conditions permit and spend time in a cooler location when indoor temperatures become excessive.

Check on vulnerable people. Older relatives, young children, neighbours living alone and people with chronic illnesses may need additional support during periods of intense heat.

Take precautions at work. Outdoor workers should take regular breaks in shaded or cooler areas, drink water frequently and follow workplace heat-safety measures.

Protect children and pets. Never leave a child or pet inside a parked vehicle, even briefly, because temperatures inside can rise rapidly.

Recognise the signs of heat illness. Headaches, dizziness, nausea and weakness may indicate heat exhaustion. Confusion, seizures or loss of consciousness can signal heat stroke, a life-threatening emergency. Move the person to a cooler place, begin cooling them with water or cool wet cloths and seek emergency medical assistance immediately. Do not give fluids to someone who is unconscious or unable to swallow safely.

Nigerians should also follow official weather information and health advisories rather than assume that every warning circulating on social media accurately describes conditions in their area.

What Authorities and Communities Can Do

The findings highlight the importance of moving beyond general heat warnings to practical measures that reduce exposure and improve access to help.

The Climate Impact Lab has called for emergency action to focus on regions facing the greatest projected risks. In Nigeria, preparedness could include communicating heat alerts in local languages, improving access to safe drinking water and identifying vulnerable communities before temperatures become dangerous.

Public cooling spaces, shaded areas and hydration points could provide relief where feasible, particularly for people who work outdoors or have limited access to cooling facilities.

Health facilities may also need adequate resources and guidance to recognise and manage heat-related illnesses. Employers and public authorities can help protect outdoor workers by encouraging rest breaks, providing drinking water and adjusting working hours when conditions become dangerous.

Community organisations can contribute by checking on older people, people living alone and households with limited access to cooling.

As the El Niño event develops, protecting lives will depend on more than forecasts and warnings. Access to reliable information, drinking water, cooler spaces and timely medical care will be essential, particularly for people most vulnerable to extreme heat. Nigerians are encouraged to follow official weather and health advisories and take practical steps to protect themselves and their families.